Dr. Denise Youngblood-Coleman

The Political Intelligence Briefing is a report on significant political developments across the international spectrum. The Political Intelligence Briefing is written by CountryWatch's editor on a weekly basis and it is intended to inform CountryWatch users of important political events evolving in the world.

In this edition (November 16, 2008):

The "Featured Country" is the United States with special emphasis on Election 2008.  The "International Hot Stories" include:    Iraq, with reference to the United States, Israel and Gaza, Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, France and Spain.  The section titled, "In the News," looks at Russian-American bilateral relations.  The "Elections Update" covers  Guinea-Bissau.

Editor's Note: CountryWatch users can make use of the section called "Special Reports" accessible from the menu tabs on the main page of the CountryWatch website.  The featured "Special Report" focuses on the United States and deals with the road to the White House, as well as the congressional elections,  and the governors' races that took place in November 2008 with dramatic results.  As well, subscribers can use the drop down menu to see summaries of other major elections in the world.

Featured Country:

Americas: United States

Election 2008: OBAMA WINS PRESIDENCY

Barack Obama becomes the 44th president of the United States by landslide victory; makes history as the first African-American to win post

Obama promises new foreign policy; will Hillary Clinton lead that new direction as Sec. of State?

See below for CountryWatch's Final Election Forecast and Actual Results

Summary --

As the election of 2008 in the United States entered its final stretch, the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joseph Biden was leading in the national polls against the Republican presidential ticket of  John McCain and Sarah Palin.  In Congress, Republicans were on the defense trying to protect the seats they held in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, while Democrats were on the offensive and seeking to make further gains in both congressional chambers. 

Heavy  voter turnout marked Election Day -- Nov. 4, 2008 -- as Americans cast their ballots for a new president.  As polls closed on the west coast of the United States, it was clear that Barack Obama would carry enough states to cross the 270 electoral vote threshold  needed to win the presidency of the United States.  In this way, he made history by becoming the first African American to win that post.  As the votes continued to be counted from state to state, it was clear that he was on track for a landslide victory.

Indeed, the Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden decisively carried the Kerry coalition of states, including  the highly coveted  state of Pennsylvania, as well as the following Bush states: Ohio, Florida, Virginia,  Iowa, Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado and New Mexico, Nevada, and one congressional district in Nebraska, for a landslide victory of 365 electoral votes.   McCain-Palin carried only 173 electoral votes.

In terms of the popular vote, President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joseph Biden on the Democratic ticket won a decisive victory over their Republican counterparts John McCain and Sarah Palin on Nov. 4, 2008, with 52.7 percent of the vote share to 46 percent.  Obama-Biden also garnered a record popular vote count of close to 67 million with McCain-Palin acquiring 58 million.

Note: In the both Houses of Congress, the ongoing repudiation of Republican rule ensured that the Democrats could extend their majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate.  The balance of power among the governors' mansions shifted slightly in favor of the Democrats via one state.

Victory –

Obama-Biden's stunning slate of victories in most of the key battleground states was proof that the country was in the mood for change; it also presented evidence that the American political landscape was in a state of transformation.

With the outcome uncontestable, John McCain conceded defeat graciously from the Biltmore Hotel grounds in his home state of Arizona.  In his speech, he acknowledged the historic candidacy of Obama and expressed congratulations and goodwill to his rival.

Soon after, President-Elect Obama delivered a short but moving victory speech at Grant Park in Chicago amidst an audience of more than 100,000.  President-Elect Obama emphasized the people-powered campaign that had propelled him toward his historic victory and acknowledged that a tough road lay ahead.  He also paid homage to McCain's service to the country, and he struck a conciliatory note as he called for Democrats and Republicans to come together for the good of the nation.  Tacitly acknowledging that his speech was addressing a transnational audience, President-Elect Obama  indicated that his presidency would deal strongly  with enemies, but that it  would foreground diplomacy and goodwill in the international arena.

Key excerpt of President-Elect Obama's victory speech –

"The road ahead will be long.  Our climb will be steep.  We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America – I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there.  I promise you – we as a people will get there. 

There will be setbacks and false starts.  There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can’t solve every problem.  But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face.  I will listen to you, especially when we disagree.  And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way it’s been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years – block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand. "

President-Elect Obama on Future Policy --

In his first television interview since Nov. 4, 2008, President-Elect Barack Obama painted a portrait of his incoming administration on the CBS show, 60 Minutes.  Signaling a sharp change on the foreign policy front, President-Elect Obama said that he intended to withdraw United States troops from Iraq and strengthen the military effort against al-Qaida in Afghanistan.

On the first matter, President-Elect Obama said that upon taking office, he would call in the Joint Chiefs of Staff and  national security apparatus to  execute a phased troop withdrawal  plan  from Iraq.  On the second matter, he noted that with a worsening security situation in  Afghanistan, there was a need to "shore up those efforts." The incoming United States president also asserted that a top priority for his administration  would be "to stamp out al-Qaida once and for all," including the capture or killing of Osama Bin Laden.  

President-Elect Obama also said he intended to repair the United States'  moral standing on the world stage.  In a move both symbolically and concretely focused on such an end, the incoming president of the United States said he would close Guantanamo Bay -- the prison camp that has been at the center of  controversy and  legal debate.  Moreover, President-Elect Obama  made clear that his administration would  act in accordance with the Geneva Conventions.  He said, "I'm going to  make sure that we don't torture."   Those two measures, said President-Elect Obama, "are part and parcel of an effort to regain America's moral stature in the world."

In regard to the most pressing issue of the day, President-Elect Obama said he would  do "whatever it takes" to stabilize his country's struggling economy.  To that end, he emphasized the need to work with the automobile industry, which was in dire need of both assistance and reform.  He also indicated the importance of helping homeowners who were having trouble in paying their mortgages.

Acknowledging that the United States was faced with one of the greatest economic challenges in recent times, as evidenced by the sharp rise in unemployment in recent months, President-Elect Obama also called on Congress to work on a rescue plan that would create jobs. He noted that economists on the right and left sides of the political divide agreed that economic stimulus was needed immediately.  President-Elect Obama said, "We're going to have to spend money now."  He added, "And that we shouldn't worry about the deficit next year or even the year after; that short term, the most important thing is that we avoid a deepening recession."

The incoming American president was asked why Treasury Secretary Paulson's initiatives, including the $700 billion bailout package to alleviate the credit crisis, had not yielded optimal results.  In answering that question, Obama suggested that without such strong action, it was possible that the financial scenario could have been far worse. 

Will Hillary Clinton be in an Obama's Cabinet?

During the interview on the CBS television show, 60 Minutes, President-Elect Obama discussed future cabinet appointments, indicating that some announcement would come "soon."  He noted that one of his top priorities would be to assemble  a national security team since  transition periods are potentially times of vulnerability to a terrorist attack." 

President-Elect Obama acknowledged that he had convened discussions with Senator Hillary Clinton, whose name emerged as a front-runner for the marquee role of Secretary of State.  While President-Elect Obama refused to discuss Clinton's possible appointment to his cabinet, he earnestly noted that she was one of the most thoughtful voices in politics today.

While some analysts have suggested that Clinton's stance on the war in 2003 might be at odds with Obama and present something of an ideological disconnect, Obama himself has repeatedly noted that he is not interested in ideology but rather in results.  To that end, it is possible that Clinton's name recognition, the global acclaim she still commands along with her husband [former President Bill Clinton], as well as her strong reputation on the issue of human rights, could well commend her for the job of Secretary of State.  To be sure, Clinton is credited for pioneering the view that women's rights are human rights and that the very status of women globally is an indicator human progress.  Indeed, on these merits, a Secretary of State Clinton might be a powerful force for repairing the United States'  "moral stature in the world," which President-Elect Obama has said is a vitally important objective. 

Clinton aside, President-Elect Obama indicated that his cabinet would include at least one Republican, although he declined to discuss the composition of his administration in further detail.

Note:

President-Elect Obama will be inaugurated into office as the 44th president of the United States on Jan. 20, 2009.

Other Election Results

Senate

CountryWatch projected that the Democrats will have a net pick-up of at least four seats and as many of eight seats.  Since Democrats and two Independents currently control 51 seats, even victory in eight seats would place them just short of the ninth seat needed to secure a filibuster-proof super-majority.

Final Result:

Democrats held their only vulnerable seat in Louisiana (Landrieu) while winning the following five seats -- Virginia (Warner), New Hampshire (Shaheen), New Mexico (Udall), Colorado (Udall),  North Carolina (Hagen), and Oregon (Merkeley)  -- for a total of 57 seats in the Senate.  At the time of writing, two seats were undecided -- Minnesota (Franken) and Alaska (Begich) and could yet advance Democratic gains in the Senate.  In Georgia, the race against the Republican (Chambliss) and the Democrat (Martin)  resulted in a run-off since no candidate achieved the state-required 50 percent majority.   The outcome of these three races would determine if the Democrats would have a filibuster-proof super-majority.  Nevertheless, the Democrats consolidated their control over the upper chamber.

House of Representatives

CountryWatch projected that Democrats would easily hold the House of Representatives and pick up around 15-20 seats. 

Final Result:

Republicans lost 24 seats while Democrats gained 19 seats for a net result of Republicans holding 175 seats in the lower house of Congress and Democrats extending their majority to 255.

Governors

The current 6 (Democratic)  to 5 (Republican) split in the races up for election was expected to continue. 

Final Result:

With Missouri  falling to the Democrats and all other races maintaining the status quo, there was a 7 (Democratic) to 4 (Republican) split in the governors' races at stake. Thus, across the country,  there are Democratic governors in 29 states and Republican governors in 21 states as of November 2008.

“Hot” International Stories:

Middle East: Iraq
See also Americas: United States

Iraqi cabinet approves security pact with U.S.; vote pending in parliament

In mid-November 2008, the  Iraqi cabinet approved the security pact with the United States, called the Status of Forces Agreement, which provided for the continued presence of 150,000 United States troops in Iraq until 2011.   The security pact has been a source of consternation in Iraq because included in the concord was limited jurisdiction for Iraq over the prosecution of troops.  Nevertheless, it appeared to have crossed one hurdle in its passage into law.  Yet to be determined was the matter of whether it would be approved in parliament.

Note:  The existing United Nations mandate for the United States-led coalition in Iraq is set to expire at the end of 2008.

In other developments, two bomb attacks struck Baghdad and Diyala respectively, as the Iraqi cabinet met to discuss the security pact.  Around 20 people were killed and many more were wounded as a result of the attacks.

Middle East: Israel; Gaza

Militants killed in Gaza air strike

In mid-November 2008, an Israeli air strike in the northern Gaza Strip killed four Palestinian militants, according to Israeli authorities.  The Israeli military said it had targeted militants firing rockets at Israel.  Indeed, the minor militant enclave, Popular Resistance Committees (PRC), acknowledged that four of its members were firing mortars into Israel when they were killed. The air strike came five months into a ceasefire and at a time when Israel was deciding whether or not to lift a blockade it levied against Gaza.  For his part, outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the ceasefire had been compromised by Hamas and other militant groups operating in Gaza.  But Hamas placed the blame on the Israeli government for the ratcheting up of tensions. 

South Asia: Afghanistan

Afghan leader offers safety deal to Taliban leader

In mid-November 2008, Afghan President Hamid Karzai offered a safety deal to the  Taliban’s leader, Mullah Omar, in the interests of advancing communications.  Karzai said the Taliban leader would be granted safe passage if he agreed to participate in peace talks with the Afghan government.  Karzai’s proposal was at odds with the United States’ multi-million dollar bounty being offered for the capture of Mullah Omar. However, Karzai has been dealing with a devolving security situation in a country with resurgent Taliban and a population increasingly disenchanted with being the victims of crossfire violence.  As such, he was clearly prepared to take drastic action.  To that end, Karzai  actively challenged the United States and other Western powers to either leave his country if they could not accept his overtures to make a deal with the Taliban, or, to themselves engage in “regime change” in Afghanistan.  At a news conference in the Afghan capital of Kabul, Karzai said: "If I say I want protection for Mullah Omar, then the international community has two choices: remove me, or leave if they disagree. And both are good.”

Africa: Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Rebel leader supports peace process in DRC

After weeks of increasing violence in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), rebel leader Laurent Nkunda informed United Nations peace envoy and former Nigerian leader, Olusegun Obasanjo, that he would support a peace agreement with the DRC government. Nkunda said he would be willing to respect a ceasefire, so long as the DRC government assented to the same agreement. He also expressed a willingness to accept ceasefire monitors, although he foreclosed the participation of United Nations peacekeepers for that purpose, accusing them of bias. On the other side of the equation, DRC President Joseph Kabila has rejected the notion of direct negotiation with the rebels. 

Note:  Nkunda had been launching attacks on the rebels and civilians in recent weeks in the eastern part of the country, in direct contravention of a prevailing peace deal, which had been signed with the government in Goma at the start of 2008. Nkunda said that his rebels were protecting the Tutsi minority in the region and warned that his forces would not disarm as long as Rwandan Hutu rebels were allowed to operate in the area.  Since the onslaught of violence began, there have been hundreds of deaths reported, the discovery of grave sites, as well as the displacement of up to 250,000 people who were fleeing the crossfire of violence between the rebels and government troops.

Europe:  France; Spain

France holds ETA military leader in custody

In mid-November 2008, the French government announced it had arrested the suspected military leader of the Basque separatist group, "Euzkadi ta Askatasuna," also known as the Basque Fatherland/Homeland and Freedom or ETA.  French Interior Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said Garikoitz Aspiazu Rubina, who gained notoriety via the alias "Txeroki," had been detained in the Pyrenees.  Alliot-Marie said that “Txeroki” was believed to have orchestrated the murder of two Spanish civil guard officers in the French town of Capbreton in 2007.   Alliot-Marie also noted that the arrest of the ETA military leader was illustrative of strong cooperation between France and Spain “in the fight against Basque terrorism.”  The arrest of “Txeroki” constituted the most significant coup in the efforts against ETA since the May 2008 arrest of a senior commander, Javier Lopez Pena or "Thierry," in Bordeaux.  For his part, “Thierry” was alleged to have been behind the  December 2006 bombing of Madrid's airport that left two people dead and brought an end to the ceasefire between ETA and the Spanish government.

In the News:

Europe/Asia: Russia
See also Americas: United States

Russia looks to Obama administration for improved ties with the United States

In a speech delivered to the Council on Foreign Relations in the United States capital of Washington D.C., Russian President Dmitry Medvedev expressed hopes that his country would enjoy improved relations with the United States under an Obama administration.  Russian President Medvedev said that United States President-Elect Barack Obama had the potential to rebuild "necessary mutual trust" that had waned during the Bush years.  The Russian president also hinted at possible compromise with the United States over the controversial plan for a United States missile shield in Europe.  He said, “We have a chance to solve the problem through either agreeing on a global system or, as a minimum, to find a solution on the existing programs, which would suit the Russian Federation.” 

Elections Update:

Guinea-Bissau’s Parliamentary Elections

Summary:

Guinea-Bissau held a parliamentary election on Nov. 16, 2008.  The political parties that were in contention included: African Independence Party of Guinea and Cape Verde, Party for Social Renewal, United Social Democratic Party, United Platform, Electoral Union, Democratic Socialist Party, Union for Change, Resistance of Guinea-Bissau-Bafata Movement, National Unity Party, United People's Alliance, National Union for Democracy and Progress, Worker's Party, Manifest Party of the People, Socialist Party of Guinea-Bissau, Guinean Democratic Movement, Guinean Civic Forum-Social Democracy, Guinean People's Party.

Backgrounder:

On Nov. 16, 2008, the people of Guinea-Bissau were set to elect 100 members to the National People's Assembly to serve four-year terms.

Candidates:

The strongest political party during the past few elections has been the African Independence Party of Guinea and Cape Verde, winning 45 seats in the last election in 2004.  This party, also known by the acronym PAIGC, governed Guinea-Bissau with the majority from 1974 until the late 1990s and again after its win in 2004.  The PAIGC has been influenced by both  Marxism and Nationalism, and has been led by the current President of Guinea-Bissau, Joao Bernardo Vieria. The Party for Social Renewal won 35 seats in the 2004 election, following their large win in the 2000 election to take over the governance of Guinea-Bissau.  It was the first time another party saw electoral success since the  political parties other than PAIGC were allowed to be formed.  In 2007, the Party for Social Renewal joined a coalition with the United Social Democratic Party and the PAIGC in order to attempt to form a new government.  The United Social Democratic Party won 17 seats in the 2004 election.  The Party for Social Renewal was beginning to strengthen under the guidance of the PAIGC and was expected to do quite well in the 2008 election.

Issues:

The financial and political unrest that plagued Guinea-Bissau in the early 2000s has seemingly cooled down due to the cooperation of the three strongest political parties.  That said, one emerging issue on the scene in Guinea-Bissau has been narcotics trafficking.  To this end, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned of the threat this issue posed to the country’s stability.  Meanwhile, narcotics trafficking was a theme that dominated the election campaign with some political leaders even accusing their rivals of complicity in the illicit trade.

Results:

On Nov. 16, 2008, voters went to the polls in Guinea-Bissau to cast their ballots in the parliamentary elections.  International monitors reported that there was high voter turnout, with most estimates suggesting that 70 percent to 80 percent of the electorate had participated in the election.  International monitors also reported  that the vote appeared to have been carried out in a calm and orderly manner.  No results were immediately anticipated, however,  President Joao Bernardo Vieira promised cooperation regardless of who ultimately won the election.  He said, “We are all going to unite to support [the winning] party to govern and develop the country.”

 
Other upcoming elections include --

November 28: Romania (parliamentary elections)
December 7: Ukraine (assuming general elections will transpire and court case is resolved on time)
December: Ghana: (presidential and parliamentary elections)
December 18: Bangladesh (general elections)
No date yet specified: Israel
Delayed: Cote d’Ivoire

Editor's Note:

CountryWatch's coverage of global political events and developments is not an endorsement of any country’s political priorities or any political interest group's agenda.  CountryWatch takes a politics-neutral approach and encourages users to consider a variety of viewpoints  and the complex range of parameters when studying either domestic politics or the international spectrum.


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- Denise Youngblood Coleman Ph.D.
   Houston, Texas